The case for Rolex
Rolex is the safest first luxury watch precisely because it is the most generic answer. Service network everywhere, resale value almost guaranteed, instant social-status recognition, and the watches genuinely are well-built. A modern Submariner at retail (if you can get one) holds 90-100% of its retail value 10 years later; a grey-market purchase at premium can also work because Rolex demand has been roughly inelastic for two decades. If you want a single watch that does everything and that nobody can criticise, buy a Rolex.
The case against
Buying Rolex first means you skip the part where you discover what you actually like. Most collectors who started with Rolex eventually move to JLC Reverso, Grand Seiko, Omega, or independent makers, and many regret the order. You also pay a 30-50% Rolex brand premium that doesn't buy you better watchmaking; it buys you the brand. And modern Rolex is hard to acquire at retail (the desirable references require waitlists at authorised dealers, often 2-3 years), forcing most buyers to grey-market premium of 1.3-2x retail.
Better-considered first-watch picks
If you want everyday all-rounder: Tudor Black Bay 58 at CHF 4,000. It is the same architecture as the Submariner, in-house movement, less brand premium. The Submariner-class watch most enthusiasts grow into. If you want dress-watch elegance: JLC Reverso at CHF 8,000+. The Reverso is the most distinctive luxury dress watch under the haute-horlogerie tier. If you want quiet luxury: Grand Seiko Snowflake SBGA211 at CHF 6,500. Nobody outside the watch world recognises it, and it is finished better than any Rolex. If you want tool-watch heritage: Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch at CHF 7,000. NASA flight-qualified, the actual moon watch.
How to think about your first
Before buying, try to wear watches in three categories on your wrist for at least 10 minutes each: a diver (Submariner, Black Bay, Seamaster), a dress watch (Reverso, Calatrava, Saxonia), and a chronograph (Speedmaster, Daytona, Carrera). You will find one of those three categories is the one you keep wanting to look at. That is the category your first watch should come from. Buying a Submariner because it is the default is fine. Buying a Submariner because you actually like wearing dive watches is much better.
What to avoid
Avoid limited editions as a first watch (you don't yet know what you like). Avoid brand-collaboration models that depend on the partner staying relevant. Avoid vintage as a first piece unless you have a specialist watchmaker you trust (vintage condition is a minefield). Avoid the grey market for non-stocked references unless you understand the warranty trade-off. Buy from an authorised dealer for the warranty, the service relationship, and the trade-in optionality you will eventually want.